Our Midyear Market Update

By Brett Gottlieb

It’s hard to believe we’re already at the halfway point of 2024—how are your finances doing? It’s a perfect time to take a break and check out the economic trends that are impacting our market and your investment portfolio. Even though we had some tough moments in 2023, we’ve seen some positive signs in important areas so far this year.

Let’s explore what’s been going on in our midyear market update to help you get ready for the rest of the year and decide on your next financial moves.

Markets Are Up

So far in 2024, financial markets have shown steady, positive performance. While the Dow Jones took a dip in May, the S&P 500 extended its bull market gains into the end of the month.

Around the same time, the Federal Reserve unanimously chose to keep policy rates unchanged for the sixth meeting in a row, and rates have remained steady since the beginning of 2024. That being said, strong inflation numbers from the first quarter suggest that hitting the 2% inflation target might take longer than anticipated. What’s more, the U.S. GDP has shown positive but slower-than-expected growth coming out of the first quarter.

This combination of stable interest rates, persistent inflation, and soft GDP growth suggests that the market may see some cautious optimism but also volatility as investors figure out their next moves. How these factors will shape the stock market for the remainder of 2024 is still largely uncertain.

Employment Remains Strong

As of June 2024, the U.S. employment scene shows steady progress with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which translates to about 6.8 million job seekers. In fact, many leading economists have noted that the labor market remains strong and stable, offering inflation-adjusted pay raises to the average worker. Additionally, real hourly earnings, which are wages adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.5% in April 2024 compared to the previous year.

GDP Is Soft

Despite facing numerous challenges, U.S. consumer spending remained strong throughout 2023. However, this momentum has started to fade. In the first quarter of 2024, the economy posted an annualized GDP growth of 1.3%, which was slightly below the forecasted 1.6%. Additionally, consumer spending grew by 2%, falling short of the anticipated 2.5%.

For 2024, real GDP (GDP adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2024. Looking ahead, real GDP growth is expected to average 2.0% annually from 2024 to 2027—slightly below last year’s prediction of 2.5%.

The Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, and Inflation

The Federal Reserve has raised its key interest rate to the highest level in 16 years to combat high inflation. After a streak of 11 rate hikes between 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve has continued to hit pause for 2024 while reassessing the current economic growth and inflation. Inflation still remains above the Fed’s 2% target, though it remains lower than its peak of 9.1% in 2022. It’s yet to be seen whether interest rates, or inflation, will bounce back higher and hamper the economy for the remainder of 2024.

Global Economies Face Similar Issues

Global growth is projected to continue growing at 3.2% for the remainder of this year and into 2025, the same pace as 2023. The global growth forecast for the five years from now is the lowest we’ve seen in decades, largely due to the tight policies needed to manage inflation, price instability, and continued geopolitical tensions. Inflation is expected to decline to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. Despite the cautious outlook, the MSCI All Country World Index is up over 7% so far this year.

Stay Ahead of the Game in 2024

Understanding the economic outlook is just the first step—facing the rest of 2024 requires a proactive strategy.

Consider your future: Are you saving enough for retirement? How much can you safely withdraw from your accounts each year? Are your investments aligned with your financial goals and risk tolerance? While we can’t control what the Federal Reserve, Congress, or inflation will do, we can take steps to pursue our financial futures. The key is creating a strong and adaptable financial plan.

At Comprehensive Advisor, we work to create personalized financial plans that guide you toward success with confidence. Our unique approach is designed to help you thrive in any market condition. Email us at info@ComprehensiveAdvisor.com or call (760) 813-2125 to get started today.

About Our Advisors

Brett Gottlieb is the founder of Comprehensive Advisor and a financial advisor with nearly two decades of industry experience. He graduated from California State University-Chico with two bachelor’s degrees, in business administration and economics, and is Life Insurance licensed in several states. He is passionate about guiding his clients on retirement income planning, helping each client pursue their specific retirement goals, and defending the assets his clients have worked so hard to achieve. Brett is a California native and currently resides in San Elijo Hills with his beautiful wife and three children.

Our team of qualified professionals have experience in the financial service industry, and our advisors hail from some of the largest independent broker/dealers and banking institutions in the country. They have dedicated their professional careers to creating personalized financial strategies for individuals and families who seek successful retirement planning and currently offer investment advisory services through AE Wealth Management, LLC. Our advisors take a common-sense approach to the planning process and work with clients to create a comprehensive retirement roadmap to help ensure their assets are preserved and they receive the income needed to enjoy their future. Based in Carlsbad, California, they work with clients throughout San Diego County and beyond. Learn more by connecting with Brett on LinkedIn or email them at info@ComprehensiveAdvisor.com.

Investment advisory products and services made available through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM), a Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance products are offered through the insurance business C.A. Financial & Insurance Services. Comprehensive Advisor, LLC is an Investment Advisory practice that offers products and services through AE Wealth Management LLC (AEWM), a Registered Investment Advisor. AEWM does not offer insurance products. The insurance products offered by C.A. Financial & Insurance Services are not subject to investment Advisor requirements. CA Ins. Lic. #6000262. This material is intended to provide general information and is believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Any references to protection benefits, safety, security, lifetime income, etc., generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investment products. Insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company.  07/2024 – 02490504